Comments on: The Drake Equation http://www.chrismclaren.com/blog/2006/12/14/the-drake-equation/ As honest as a gambling man can be Thu, 20 Nov 2008 16:37:40 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: Homo Sum » Blog Archive » Yes, I just made up the term “Doom Constant” http://www.chrismclaren.com/blog/2006/12/14/the-drake-equation/#comment-50532 Homo Sum » Blog Archive » Yes, I just made up the term “Doom Constant” Thu, 08 May 2008 04:26:54 +0000 http://www.chrismclaren.com/blog/archives/2006/12/14/the-drake-equation/#comment-50532 [...] Remember Nick Bostrom? And remember the Drake Equation? [...] [...] Remember Nick Bostrom? And remember the Drake Equation? [...]

]]> By: Homo Sum » Blog Archive » En Passant http://www.chrismclaren.com/blog/2006/12/14/the-drake-equation/#comment-48630 Homo Sum » Blog Archive » En Passant Tue, 19 Feb 2008 22:55:01 +0000 http://www.chrismclaren.com/blog/archives/2006/12/14/the-drake-equation/#comment-48630 [...] of comics, I see that XKCD is addressing the Drake Equation, which we discussed here back in [...] [...] of comics, I see that XKCD is addressing the Drake Equation, which we discussed here back in [...]

]]> By: Alex Wilson http://www.chrismclaren.com/blog/2006/12/14/the-drake-equation/#comment-35711 Alex Wilson Tue, 19 Dec 2006 06:10:45 +0000 http://www.chrismclaren.com/blog/archives/2006/12/14/the-drake-equation/#comment-35711 I plugged my best guesses in and got 20... I think the odds of there being life-supporting planets are lower, but that should life arise, the odds of it becoming intelligent life are much higher. I probably need to temper that assumption with a good dose of "the whole planet doesn't gets wiped out by x..." before intelligence arises, though, which I think would rather decrease the odds. Of course, I think you could also argue that even if better estimates of N are several orders smaller than 1, it's still worth looking -- the related computation might be put that we should look as long as B*N > C, where C is the cost of searching and B is the relative benefit we'd get from a successful search. I think B is (arguably) pretty big, so that relation holds for even the smallest values of N :) Then again, I am a math geek. I plugged my best guesses in and got 20… I think the odds of there being life-supporting planets are lower, but that should life arise, the odds of it becoming intelligent life are much higher. I probably need to temper that assumption with a good dose of “the whole planet doesn’t gets wiped out by x…” before intelligence arises, though, which I think would rather decrease the odds.

Of course, I think you could also argue that even if better estimates of N are several orders smaller than 1, it’s still worth looking — the related computation might be put that we should look as long as B*N > C, where C is the cost of searching and B is the relative benefit we’d get from a successful search. I think B is (arguably) pretty big, so that relation holds for even the smallest values of N :)

Then again, I am a math geek.

]]> By: Speedbag http://www.chrismclaren.com/blog/2006/12/14/the-drake-equation/#comment-35690 Speedbag Mon, 18 Dec 2006 13:39:57 +0000 http://www.chrismclaren.com/blog/archives/2006/12/14/the-drake-equation/#comment-35690 I know a totally different Drake Equation! Speedbag I know a totally different Drake Equation!

Speedbag

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